What is the plan in Afghanistan?

The messages surrounding the Afghan war seem mixed to say the least.


(Image: Explosive sniffer dog overlooking Bamiyan, Afghanistan. Credit to Carl Montgomery for the photo.)

Washington Post: US Officials Offer Dismal Review of War in Afghanistan


They call it a challenge 'much tougher than Iraq'. Well what did you expect! You know Afghanistan's tribal/xenophobic history. They just don't like foreigners, and will drag the fight on until you leave. Simple.

"Afghanistan has been known over the years as the graveyard of empires," he said. "We cannot take that history lightly." - General Petraeus, head of US Command.

Exactly - which is why it would be best to leave sooner rather than later. The economies of the ISAF countries, especially the US, cannot afford the war to drag on. I have some sympathy for the military commanders in Afghanistan - like ex-CIA man Ray McGovern, they probably realise they are stuck in an unwinnable war.


(Image: the road to Bamiyan, Aghnainstan. An example of the difficult terrain our forces have to fight in.)

(Image: Ukrainian war memorial to their dead in the 1980s Afghan War. That conflict lasted ten years, and played a part in the collapse of the Soviet Union.)

Meanwhile...Afghanistan's Karzai Offers Peace to 'Friendly Taliban' (VOANews)

A good idea to try and 'divide and conquer' the Taliban. But, history shows the Afghan mountain-dwellers tend to stand united against foreigners; the only time they are divided is when they go back to fighting each other once the outsiders are dispatched.

All of this set against the background of Obama's Afghan-Pakistani surge policy...I am not convinced as to the purposes and merits of the Afghan campaign.

But hey, the CIA probably loves the other 'surge'; opium production since the invasion has increased to 93% of world production in 2007. The Taliban outlawed opium cultivation, and in 2001 the output was 91% lower than in 2000. But since their ousting, production has soared. (Am I suggesting the lovely people in the US Federal government would deal drugs? No. I'm telling you.)

Anyways, squeal all you want about 'getting behind the cause' or some such, the war is unwinnable and should be ended ASAP.

The Grand Chessboard War Continues

"Kyrgyzstan To Shut Key US Base":

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7868586.stm

(Image: Ready for takeoff at the US Air Force base in Kyrgyzstan.)

"Kyrgyzstan's president has said his government is closing a key US air base on its territory.
Kurmanbek Bakiyev made the announcement in Moscow, where he was promised more than $2bn (£1.4bn) in aid by Russia. "

Looks like someone just defected to the Soviet Union!

After the US-NATO backed Georgian invasion of Ossetia, the diplomatic quasi-war between the US and Russia persists. The 90s were notable for the encirclement of Russia; but the 00s have seen a Russian fightback of sorts, culminating in the Russian military response to Georgia's aggression.

As an aside, the Western media coverage of this conflict, compared to the hard fact that Georgia struck first, was what ultimately caused me to realise that even the BBC was not a reliable news source. Thanks, globalist firestarters, for helping wake me up!

The closure will also affect US operations in Afghanistan.

But the real blow is to the American neo-con geopolitical objectives.

Civilian Casualties and Taliban Recruitment in Afghanistan

Much has been made of the bombing of wedding ceremonies and villages in Afghanistan. However, the stories in the media have been rather distant and impersonal. So I was surprised to find this video, originally from The Guardian (UK newspaper), on The Real News.

It is good that we see a human face of those who would be our enemy, because it prevents the general ignorance that those who support the Taliban are fanatics or clueless about what is best for them.

Misguided? Maybe. And it's fairly obvious that the Taliban is not a group seeking to improve Afghans' living standards or rights. But many, if not most, Taliban volunteers are making a conscious decision with their own interests in mind. They are driven by the same fear and hatred of foreigners that has kept Afghanistan an unoccupiable tribal region for centuries, as well as the desire for revenge.

Also, nobody wants to be a collaborator to the 'filthy Western dogs' - for which the Taliban routinely carry out executions - especially if ISAF and the Afghan government is losing the war.

(Image: the proposed surge in Afghanistan may be decisive as the war enters its eighth year.)

[source]

Will the 'surge' change things? In the sense that ISAF forces will have a sufficient number of troops to expand their influence and not be stuck in isolated outposts, maybe it will. I don't hold any really high hopes for anything more than this personally, though, with the exception of more names to be inscribed into stone; after all, as the video I posted previously points out, the surge in Iraq wasn't the main cause of improvements there.

On a related note...
Christmas greetings from British Soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Their concern with their local sports teams back home rather than staying alive is worrying :)
Come home safe, lads.

So, Did the Surge really work?

The Real News interviewed Ray McGovern, a veteran security advisor to the US, about Iraq, Afghanistan and Obama.


I don't want to pass judgement too much on this; rather, just see what he has to say and make up your own mind.

The idea that the surge worked is a mainstream view that has been accepted by both parties in the US. Whether they were right to do so, and whether surge-type operations are a success, is vitally important right now as the new Obama administration plans for an escalation of the Afghan conflict.

As McGovern points out (and no matter how frequently the comparisons have been mentioned in the last seven years), Afghanistan could be 'Obama's Vietnam'.

I believe that the resilience of the Taliban as an enemy, combined with the problems with terrain in some areas of the country, as well as the enemy's safe haven in Waziristan, means that comparisons with the US-Indochina conflict are not overblown or sensationalist, and that, if escalation fails, it will be the biggest US disaster since Vietnam. Bigger than Iraq.